Well, that's the big question isn't it? Is there even going to be a TS5?
I kinda feel the same that if there is it is already well into development and due around your late 2019 mark. I'm not as confident in the chances of a TS5 though as everyone would have been in a TS4. With EA's push toward making everything online/mobile and TS4's lukewarm reception I'm not counting on a TS5 until they announce it.
Either way I don't disagree that GP/EP development for TS4 could likely wane sooner rather than later.
I agree that the the market for mobile/online games is growing while the market for PC games is decreasing and that it therefore is likely that EA is going in that direction too.
But to assume that TS4 will have a longer lifetime and more expansions than any of the earlier big Sims games is in contradiction with the above and I can't imagine EA doing something like that. There are only 2 options:
1. EA is going other ways and TS4 will be the last big Sims game. That will mean that EA will release smaller and smaller expansions for TS4 until EA announces that the time for big Sims games is over.
2. The sales numbers for TS4 expansions is still high and EA wants to release TS5 too. This will mean that EA still will release a few big expansions for TS4 beside all the more profitable SPs and TS5 is in development too.
I don't believe in point 1 because the Sims games have been the best selling PC games ever for EA. Therefore the Sims games almost certainly will be the last big PC games for EA to drop - and it has been the huge number of expansions that have given EA most of the profit.
What I personally don't like is the change to SPs and also to smaller EPs (GPs). But SPs are much cheaper for EA to make than EPs and they seem to sell almost as well anyway. So at least it is understandable to me that EA has chosen to go in that direction. It makes me fear for TS5. But it will still surprise me if EA doesn't want to earn more money on big PC Sims games with a huge number of expansions. So I am quite sure that TS5 is in development and will almost certainly be announced officially at some time in 2018. (I don't think that TS5 will be announced already in 2017 because EA usually has announced the big Sims games only a year before they are released.)
The interesting thing for me is that EA always has made a big effort in making each big Sims game very different from its predecessor (although all the Sims games have had a huge number of expansions anyway). But how will EA make TS5 different from TS4 if TS5 also will focus mainly on SPs? That will be interesting to see.
I think if there is a sims 5 it wont be called the sims 5. I can see EA doing a major series reboot and starting again.
I can't really because the concept is rather tied:
1. EA's income from the big PC games comes almost exclusively from selling a huge number of expansion packs. Therefore EA won't change that even though EA now has experienced that it is more profitable to release more small expansions (GPs but mainly SPs) instead of the big EPs.
2. EA also has the Sims Freeplay which is much more profitable than earlier Sims games (like the Sims Online, the Sims Social and the Sims games for consoles). So EA isn't likely to make another multiplayer Sims game instead and most likely not another Sims game for consoles either. (Consoles seem to be more suited for action games which need a special controller instead of "dollhouse games" which mainly needs to get more clothes and new hair styles all the time.)
The big PC games get too many problems after about 5 years. So EA will probably still release a new version of them every 5 years as long as they still are profitable to make.
The mobile multiplayer Sims games don't need a new version in the same way and it would probably be too risky for EA to make such a new version (WoW is very old too and still exist anyway). So even though Freeplay is from 2011 nothing still point in direction of a new version and it still gets a lot of new stuff. It exists on all mobile platforms - but EA clearly doesn't want a PC version because EA wants PC simmers to buy SPs for TS4 (and later TS5) instead.
I think if there is a sims 5 it wont be called the sims 5. I can see EA doing a major series reboot and starting again.
With the way TS4 rolled out I think it is all really up in the air. I wouldn't be surprised by any of the following; TS5 comes out as a standard single player sims game, TS5 comes out like the original Olympus was intended as an online multi-player game, There is no TS5.
I think all of that is a possibility and something we won't have an answer on for a while.
There has always been 8 to 12 months between the expansions. So now people expect that there only will be 6 months between them form now on!??!!??
My predictions instead are something like the following:
Basegame Sept 2014
GP1 Jan 2015
EP1 Apr 2015
GP2 July 2015
EP2 Dec 2015
GP3 June 2016
EP3 Nov 2016
GP4 Jan 2017
EP4 maybe Sept 2017
GP5 maybe Jan 2018
And of course EA will still release 5 to 6 SPs every year too
Thanks for that info (rated insightful). I was pretty sure the EP1 was announced in February--meaning 2 months between announcement and release, so that would mean there would be an announcement in July (around expo time...hmmm).
I think the only time there was a delay was with EP2. I think September is really long for only 1 EP release/announcement Do you really think there will be year gaps between EPs?!
Bah! EA isn't about to kill off their cash cow! If EA killed off The Sims, then in fairness...
Nintendo should kill of the Mario Bros franchise
Capcom should kill off the Resident Evil franchise
...And I don't see that happening any time soon!
A reboot? Well, that *might* be interesting...I am open to seeing how that will pan out!
Nintendo doesn't skimp on Mario games either, Capcom doesn't cut Resident Evil budgets to the bone. While I agree it would be silly for EA to kill The Sims they certainly don't seem to regard the series the same way the companies in your examples do their major titles. I guess I'm just not as confident in EA as others are. The Sims wouldn't be the first, and likely wouldn't be the last popular series that EA buried.
Well, that's the big question isn't it? Is there even going to be a TS5?
I kinda feel the same that if there is it is already well into development and due around your late 2019 mark. I'm not as confident in the chances of a TS5 though as everyone would have been in a TS4. With EA's push toward making everything online/mobile and TS4's lukewarm reception I'm not counting on a TS5 until they announce it.
Either way I don't disagree that GP/EP development for TS4 could likely wane sooner rather than later.
I agree that the the market for mobile/online games is growing while the market for PC games is decreasing and that it therefore is likely that EA is going in that direction too.
But to assume that TS4 will have a longer lifetime and more expansions than any of the earlier big Sims games is in contradiction with the above and I can't imagine EA doing something like that. There are only 2 options:
1. EA is going other ways and TS4 will be the last big Sims game. That will mean that EA will release smaller and smaller expansions for TS4 until EA announces that the time for big Sims games is over.
2. The sales numbers for TS4 expansions is still high and EA wants to release TS5 too. This will mean that EA still will release a few big expansions for TS4 beside all the more profitable SPs and TS5 is in development too.
I don't believe in point 1 because the Sims games have been the best selling PC games ever for EA. Therefore the Sims games almost certainly will be the last big PC games for EA to drop - and it has been the huge number of expansions that have given EA most of the profit.
What I personally don't like is the change to SPs and also to smaller EPs (GPs). But SPs are much cheaper for EA to make than EPs and they seem to sell almost as well anyway. So at least it is understandable to me that EA has chosen to go in that direction. It makes me fear for TS5. But it will still surprise me if EA doesn't want to earn more money on big PC Sims games with a huge number of expansions. So I am quite sure that TS5 is in development and will almost certainly be announced officially at some time in 2018. (I don't think that TS5 will be announced already in 2017 because EA usually has announced the big Sims games only a year before they are released.)
The interesting thing for me is that EA always has made a big effort in making each big Sims game very different from its predecessor (although all the Sims games have had a huge number of expansions anyway). But how will EA make TS5 different from TS4 if TS5 also will focus mainly on SPs? That will be interesting to see.
I think if there is a sims 5 it wont be called the sims 5. I can see EA doing a major series reboot and starting again.
I'd agree with this. Some of the backlash was due to the game being called TS4 and therefore came with so many expectations associated with a sequel. It should have been bigger and better, more simulating, more stimulating, better graphics than previous versions. Whatever comes I sure hope it's not called The Sims 5.
There has always been 8 to 12 months between the expansions. So now people expect that there only will be 6 months between them form now on!??!!??
My predictions instead are something like the following:
Basegame Sept 2014
GP1 Jan 2015
EP1 Apr 2015
GP2 July 2015
EP2 Dec 2015
GP3 June 2016
EP3 Nov 2016
GP4 Jan 2017
EP4 maybe Sept 2017
GP5 maybe Jan 2018
And of course EA will still release 5 to 6 SPs every year too
Thanks for that info (rated insightful). I was pretty sure the EP1 was announced in February--meaning 2 months between announcement and release, so that would mean there would be an announcement in July (around expo time...hmmm).
I think the only time there was a delay was with EP2. I think September is really long for only 1 EP release/announcement Do you really think there will be year gaps between EPs?!
I think that EA now prefers to release SPs instead of EPs because gameplay is much more difficult and expensive to make than stuff is. Therefore SPs now are the main expansions.
EA also had the Sims 3 Store. But there people only bought the few things they wanted. Therefore EA now instead sells SPs which people need to buy even if they only use a few things in each of them. You can compare this with the way TV channels are sold in packs (at least in my country) where people only can choose between a minimum pack with few channels, a medium pack which about half of the channels and a maximum pack with all the channels. But they can't just choose the channels they want because the companies know that then everybody would choose fewer channels and only the channels which they actually watch.
So in my opinion EA now mainly wants to sell stuff in SPs because this gives EA most profit. But EA also has to keep as many people interested in the game as possible. This is done in 3 ways:
1. By releasing a GP about every 8 to 10 months.
2. By releasing an EP about every 8 to 10 months.
3. By releasing free stuff in patches because especially this makes people curious enough to not stop playing. And if they are playing then they will also buy
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS3 got 11 EPs in 5 years which is a little more than 2 per year.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS3 got 11 EPs in 5 years which is a little more than 2 per year.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
Baseless speculation. You have no way to know how many of them are planned, and the rest of your theory is based on that, so it's as baseless too.
Why stuff comes in free updates would imply that TS4 gets more stuff and less gameplay ? There's also gameplay coming in free updates. I would even say that we're having a lot of new gameplay in free updates, there hasn't been many new Build/Buy/CAS items patched for free (Starwars costumes, anniversary T-shirts, the halloween items, Christmas sweaters, the holiday content, dishwashers), compared to ghosts/pools/careers/toddlers/traits/aspirations/basements/NPCs/challenges/newcrest/various gameplay like monster under the bed or coworker.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS3 got 11 EPs in 5 years which is a little more than 2 per year.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
Baseless speculation. You have no way to know how many of them are planned, and the rest of your theory is based on that, so it's as baseless too.
Only because you won't accept that EA is a huge company who only makes games to earn money and not at all because they just want to please their customers.
All EA's actions are actually quite logical if only you accept that EA is big business based on marketing and finances.
Why stuff comes in free updates would imply that TS4 gets more stuff and less gameplay ? There's also gameplay coming in free updates. I would even say that we're having a lot of new gameplay in free updates, there hasn't been many new Build/Buy/CAS items patched for free (Starwars costumes, anniversary T-shirts, the halloween items, Christmas sweaters, the holiday content, dishwashers), compared to ghosts/pools/careers/toddlers/traits/aspirations/basements/NPCs/challenges/newcrest/various gameplay like monster under the bed or coworker.
Yes. Toddlers came in a free update and with a lot of gameplay too. But all this was already there in the Sims 3 basegame. It was also an exception because it was the only time where the free updates had such a thing. But it was probably the smartest thing that EA's marketing experts ever have done to release toddlers for free because they wouldn't have sold very well anyway and because the free toddlers probably have improved the sales numbers for everything else tremendously.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS3 got 11 EPs in 5 years which is a little more than 2 per year.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
Baseless speculation. You have no way to know how many of them are planned, and the rest of your theory is based on that, so it's as baseless too.
Only because you won't accept that EA is a huge company who only makes games to earn money and not at all because they just want to please their customers.
All EA's actions are actually quite logical if only you accept that EA is big business based on marketing and finances.
I'm very much aware EA is a business, I have never doubted they are looking to make money first and foremost, and I don't know where you got the idea that I don't accept it, but that doesn't explain why you think they would only release two more GPs in the second half of TS4 when they have released 4 of them in the first half. And that's assuming TS4 will only last 5 years, which we have no proof of either. EA is logical, it's you who aren't.
Looking at the facts, they are more or less providing us with the same value of content both in term of SPs and GPs/EPs, which means there hasn't been any radical shift toward more SP content or less GP/EP content. There's no strict schedule (probably because they are trying to juggle with all that content, and the holiday seasons to sell in retail), but we can most likely expect that, on average, we'll end up with a similar amount of packs than we had in the past.
@Erpe
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS3 had 9 SPs released in its lifetime (5 years).
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS3 got 11 EPs in 5 years which is a little more than 2 per year.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
Baseless speculation. You have no way to know how many of them are planned, and the rest of your theory is based on that, so it's as baseless too.
Only because you won't accept that EA is a huge company who only makes games to earn money and not at all because they just want to please their customers.
All EA's actions are actually quite logical if only you accept that EA is big business based on marketing and finances.
I'm very much aware EA is a business, I have never doubted they are looking to make money first and foremost, and I don't know where you got the idea that I don't accept it, but that doesn't explain why you think they would only release two more GPs in the second half of TS4 when they have released 4 of them in the first half. And that's assuming TS4 will only last 5 years, which we have no proof of either. EA is logical, it's you who aren't.
EA has just released a GP. Therefore the next big expansion will be an EP which I expect to be released in August, September or October. The next GP will therefore most likely be released in December and it is unlikely that EA will release more than one GP in 2018 (I expect GP6 in the middle of 2018 - maybe in August - but maybe later because EP5 also has to be released in 2018.)
In 2019 I expect both EP6 and TS5 to be released. But the uncertainty is about EA's policy about releasing big expansions for TS4 just before TS5 is released. Maybe EA doesn't think that this will be such a good idea? EA will also have the problem that almost all the developers then will work hard on TS5 to make it ready for release. So maybe EA will only want to release SPs for TS4 at that time? I doubt that EA again will let another studio make extra expansions for TS4 like EA did when EA let the studio in Salt Lake City make the last 4 EPs for TS3.
Looking at the facts, they are more or less providing us with the same value of content both in term of SPs and GPs/EPs, which means there hasn't been any radical shift toward more SP content or less GP/EP content. There's no strict schedule (probably because they are trying to juggle with all that content, and the holiday seasons to sell in retail), but we can most likely expect that, on average, we'll end up with a similar amount of packs than we had in the past.
I doubt that EA lets anything just happen at random and EA's strategy has clearly changed about several things:
1. EA releases more SPs than ever before.
2. EA doesn't make mobile versions of TS4 like EA did with several TS3 games (TS3, TS3 Ambitions and TS3 World Adventures).
3. EA doesn't make versions of Sims games for consoles anymore.
4. EA now has only one Sims game for mobile devices which is the Sims Freeplay. This game is even available for "rare" devices like BlackBerry, Kindle and Windows Phone too - but not for neither Windows PCs or Mac. Freeplay still gets a lot of new stuff even though the game is from 2011 and thus 6 years old.
5. EA doesn't make sidegames (like the Sims Medieval or the Sims Story Line) anymore.
So generally EA experiments less and just follows a fixed marketing strategy much more. This makes it unlikely that EA suddenly will release big EPs more often (more likely EA will release them even more rarely when TS5 needs more focus).
@Erpe
"EA has just released a GP. Therefore the next big expansion will be an EP." -> another assumption, they have never said they woudn't release two GPs one after another, why would you exclude it ? GPs have a shorter developpement than EPs (Source : http://forums.thesims.com/en_US/discussion/comment/15138394/#Comment_15138394), and GPs have been slowly sliding ahead compared to the EPs : OR was released 2,5 months before GTW, SD was released 4,5 months before GT, DO was released 6 months before CL, Vampires was released 2 months after CL (which may mean 10 months before EP5 if it comes for the holiday season). I think there's a high probability that next pack will in fact be a GP, possibly next summer.
And the Salt Lake City studio didn't make the last 4 EPs for TS3 by the way, both Seasons and Island Paradise were made by Redwood Shore.
@Erpe
"EA has just released a GP. Therefore the next big expansion will be an EP." -> another assumption, they have never said they woudn't release two GPs one after another, why would you exclude it ? GPs have a shorter developpement than EPs (Source : http://forums.thesims.com/en_US/discussion/comment/15138394/#Comment_15138394), and GPs have been slowly sliding ahead compared to the EPs : OR was released 2,5 months before GTW, SD was released 4,5 months before GT, DO was released 6 months before CL, Vampires was released 2 months after CL (which may mean 10 months before EP5 if it comes for the holiday season). I think there's a high probability that next pack will in fact be a GP, possibly next summer.
I know that GPs are faster to make than EPs and therefore are sold for about half the price. But until now they have always switched between GPs and EPs such that the first (OR) was a GP and after that it was EP-GP-EP-GP-EP-GP such that we now have 4 GPs and 3 EPs. Theoretically EA could of course change that. But nothing points in that direction and the next big expansion is expected to be Pets which then will become EP4 and probably released at some time in the second half of 2017.
And the Salt Lake City studio didn't make the last 4 EPs for TS3 by the way, both Seasons and Island Paradise were made by Redwood Shore.
Okay. You seem to be right. The last 6 EPs for TS3 were:
Showtime (made in Salt Lake in 2012)
Supernatural (made in Salt Lake in 2012)
Seasons (made in Redwood in 2012)
University Life (made in Salt Lake in 2013)
Island Paradise (made in Redwood in 2013)
Into the Future (made in Salt Lake in 2013)
So in those days EA released 3 EPs every year and 2/3 of them were made in Salt Lake City. But the studio in Redwood still only made one EP each year and not the usual 2 EPs because they were too focused on TS4 to do that.
@Erpe
One thing is sure, both "GPs development take 75% of an EP" and "GPs and EPs are always alternating" can't both be true at the same time, it's mathematical. Considering one has been told to us by a SimGuru and the other has been almost denied by a SimGuru ("There's no pattern !"), everything points to the first one being the one that will stay true, and the second one being the one that won't. But you can doubt it and think it's the opposite that makes the most sense, but don't pretend it's the only logical conclusion.
What is far less certain though, is whether GPs will overcome EPs at the GP5/EP4 mark or later. I'm assuming they are aiming for the holiday season for EPs (because retail, brick&mortar, distribution costs) so that seems like the perfect time. And last time we had a GP in January, we had a GP in the summer, so it's probably doable development-wise.
Last EP was in November 2016 and announced 2 months prior, yes?
Second Quarter:
April
May
June
Third Quarter:
July
August
September
Fourth Quarter:
October
November
December
I feel it will probably be announced in the Fourth quarter's teaser and be released December. If there is a 2 months prior announcement. But I'm really curious as to what we're going to get over the second and third quarter. Super excited. (: Hopefully it's another game pack... between now (when I say now I mean.. the "second quarter", because we already know what's coming in March) and before the Fourth Quarter so we can have a bit of game play to play while waiting for Expansion pack 4.
I guess the Pets EP will get announced in March or at least part of the quarterly teaser April-June.
It is all speculation, and we all do not know for sure, since they are NOT following any obvious pattern, since we had to wait for an eternity to get CL.
@Erpe
One thing is sure, both "GPs development take 75% of an EP" and "GPs and EPs are always alternating" can't both be true at the same time, it's mathematical.
Why not?
Your problem here seems to be that you assume that they always immediately starts developing the next GP when they finish the previous one and with a full team - and that they do the same with the EPs. But we don't know that at all. EA decides when both GPs and EPs have their deadlines and must be ready for release. But Maxis decide when they then should start developing them and with how many developers. Maxis also have to allocate developers for SP teams and for the teams who develop the updates in the same way. And now Maxis probably also has a TS5 team which will become bigger and bigger when Maxis knows more exact how TS5 should be made. ( New games are always first designed with a very small team which then graduately becomes bigger and bigger as the plans become more fixed.)
What we do know is that the developers now are members of more than one development team at the same time (because they have told us so). So some of the developers are probably members of both the EP4 development team and the GP5 development team. But GP5 is likely planned to be released after EP4. So my guess is that almost all such developers work on EP4 and not at the moment on GP5. This is probably true for especially the programmers, the producers and the artists while some of the game designers maybe already have switched to designing GP5. So the teams work at the same time. But not every developer every day because they of course have to prioritize.
@Erpe
It doesn't matter whether they start developping the next GP when they finish the previous one, or whether there's the full team or not, or when they have the deadlines, it's an average number, from idea to release. If they want to follow the alternating GP/EP rule, they could make the process take longer (like putting less people on it) then the average length from idea to release would go up ("GPs development take 75% of an EP" would no longer be true), but there's just no reason to assume they will when they have repeatedly told us there's no pattern.
@Erpe
It doesn't matter whether they start developping the next GP when they finish the previous one, or whether there's the full team or not, or when they have the deadlines, it's an average number, from idea to release. If they want to follow the alternating GP/EP rule, they could make the process take longer (like putting less people on it) then the average length from idea to release would go up ("GPs development take 75% of an EP" would no longer be true), but there's just no reason to assume they will when they have repeatedly told us there's no pattern.
I was adding a little more to my previous message when you wrote this one. So maybe you will change this comment?
Yeah I guess I hadn't really thought of it that way. The pack releases aren't so much just "when they are ready" as they are going to be "when EA says they need to release". Looking at it from that perspective you likely are right that it will go EP, GP, EP, GP, etc. That would mean we have a pretty long dry spell ahead of us ( i don't particularly care about or get too interested in the SP's).
Comments
1. EA's income from the big PC games comes almost exclusively from selling a huge number of expansion packs. Therefore EA won't change that even though EA now has experienced that it is more profitable to release more small expansions (GPs but mainly SPs) instead of the big EPs.
2. EA also has the Sims Freeplay which is much more profitable than earlier Sims games (like the Sims Online, the Sims Social and the Sims games for consoles). So EA isn't likely to make another multiplayer Sims game instead and most likely not another Sims game for consoles either. (Consoles seem to be more suited for action games which need a special controller instead of "dollhouse games" which mainly needs to get more clothes and new hair styles all the time.)
The big PC games get too many problems after about 5 years. So EA will probably still release a new version of them every 5 years as long as they still are profitable to make.
The mobile multiplayer Sims games don't need a new version in the same way and it would probably be too risky for EA to make such a new version (WoW is very old too and still exist anyway). So even though Freeplay is from 2011 nothing still point in direction of a new version and it still gets a lot of new stuff. It exists on all mobile platforms - but EA clearly doesn't want a PC version because EA wants PC simmers to buy SPs for TS4 (and later TS5) instead.
With the way TS4 rolled out I think it is all really up in the air. I wouldn't be surprised by any of the following; TS5 comes out as a standard single player sims game, TS5 comes out like the original Olympus was intended as an online multi-player game, There is no TS5.
I think all of that is a possibility and something we won't have an answer on for a while.
Thanks for that info (rated insightful). I was pretty sure the EP1 was announced in February--meaning 2 months between announcement and release, so that would mean there would be an announcement in July (around expo time...hmmm).
I think the only time there was a delay was with EP2. I think September is really long for only 1 EP release/announcement
Nintendo should kill of the Mario Bros franchise
Capcom should kill off the Resident Evil franchise
...And I don't see that happening any time soon!
A reboot? Well, that *might* be interesting...I am open to seeing how that will pan out!
https://players.rcast.net/square/71017
Nintendo doesn't skimp on Mario games either, Capcom doesn't cut Resident Evil budgets to the bone. While I agree it would be silly for EA to kill The Sims they certainly don't seem to regard the series the same way the companies in your examples do their major titles. I guess I'm just not as confident in EA as others are.
I'd agree with this. Some of the backlash was due to the game being called TS4 and therefore came with so many expectations associated with a sequel. It should have been bigger and better, more simulating, more stimulating, better graphics than previous versions. Whatever comes I sure hope it's not called The Sims 5.
EA also had the Sims 3 Store. But there people only bought the few things they wanted. Therefore EA now instead sells SPs which people need to buy even if they only use a few things in each of them. You can compare this with the way TV channels are sold in packs (at least in my country) where people only can choose between a minimum pack with few channels, a medium pack which about half of the channels and a maximum pack with all the channels. But they can't just choose the channels they want because the companies know that then everybody would choose fewer channels and only the channels which they actually watch.
So in my opinion EA now mainly wants to sell stuff in SPs because this gives EA most profit. But EA also has to keep as many people interested in the game as possible. This is done in 3 ways:
1. By releasing a GP about every 8 to 10 months.
2. By releasing an EP about every 8 to 10 months.
3. By releasing free stuff in patches because especially this makes people curious enough to not stop playing. And if they are playing then they will also buy
They aren't releasing more SPs in value than previously. We're 2 years and 6 months in (30 months).
In TS4, we have 90$ of SPs, with one coming next month : 100$
In TS3, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
In TS2, we had 80$ of SPs, with one coming the following month : 100$
They aren't mainly wanting to sell stuff in SPs, SPs aren't the main expansions, not more than in previous iteration.
And for those interested, here are the numbers of GPs/EPs :
TS4 : 3 EPs + 4 GPs : 200$
TS3 : 5 EPs : 200$
TS2 : 4 EPs : 160$ (+ 1 next month : 200$)
TS4 has already 9 SPs released in half of its lifetime (2.5 years). So TS4 has twice as many SPs released as TS3 had and will probably end up with a total of 18 to 20 SPs.
You can say that this is partly because TS4 doesn't have a store too like TS3 had. But EA still releases more SPs than ever before and much fewer EPs. Even if you count each GP as a half EP too then TS4 will never get as many EPs as TS3 had. But many more SPs.
They are twice as cheap, so there's twice as many of them, but in value, we have the same amount as before.
And we have also spent the same amount of money on EPs/GPs than before.
TS4 has now only 3 EPs and 4 GPs and will most likely only get a total of 6 GPs and 6 EPs. If we count GPs as half EPs that is only about 9 EPs where TS3 had 11 EPs. Then we also need to compare the sizes of the EPs. But I am not an expert in this because I haven't bought them. So I will leave those comparisons to other simmers. It is my expression from the forum that the EPs haven't exactly become bigger though
So TS4 gets fewer EPs and more SPs. You say that the SPs now are cheaper. But TS4 also gets a lot of stuff in free updates. So TS4 IMO still gets more stuff and less gameplay. This was also the case with the basegame which had less gameplay than the Sims 3 basegame had.
Baseless speculation. You have no way to know how many of them are planned, and the rest of your theory is based on that, so it's as baseless too.
Why stuff comes in free updates would imply that TS4 gets more stuff and less gameplay ? There's also gameplay coming in free updates. I would even say that we're having a lot of new gameplay in free updates, there hasn't been many new Build/Buy/CAS items patched for free (Starwars costumes, anniversary T-shirts, the halloween items, Christmas sweaters, the holiday content, dishwashers), compared to ghosts/pools/careers/toddlers/traits/aspirations/basements/NPCs/challenges/newcrest/various gameplay like monster under the bed or coworker.
All EA's actions are actually quite logical if only you accept that EA is big business based on marketing and finances.
Yes. Toddlers came in a free update and with a lot of gameplay too. But all this was already there in the Sims 3 basegame. It was also an exception because it was the only time where the free updates had such a thing. But it was probably the smartest thing that EA's marketing experts ever have done to release toddlers for free because they wouldn't have sold very well anyway and because the free toddlers probably have improved the sales numbers for everything else tremendously.
I'm very much aware EA is a business, I have never doubted they are looking to make money first and foremost, and I don't know where you got the idea that I don't accept it, but that doesn't explain why you think they would only release two more GPs in the second half of TS4 when they have released 4 of them in the first half. And that's assuming TS4 will only last 5 years, which we have no proof of either. EA is logical, it's you who aren't.
Looking at the facts, they are more or less providing us with the same value of content both in term of SPs and GPs/EPs, which means there hasn't been any radical shift toward more SP content or less GP/EP content. There's no strict schedule (probably because they are trying to juggle with all that content, and the holiday seasons to sell in retail), but we can most likely expect that, on average, we'll end up with a similar amount of packs than we had in the past.
In 2019 I expect both EP6 and TS5 to be released. But the uncertainty is about EA's policy about releasing big expansions for TS4 just before TS5 is released. Maybe EA doesn't think that this will be such a good idea? EA will also have the problem that almost all the developers then will work hard on TS5 to make it ready for release. So maybe EA will only want to release SPs for TS4 at that time? I doubt that EA again will let another studio make extra expansions for TS4 like EA did when EA let the studio in Salt Lake City make the last 4 EPs for TS3.
I doubt that EA lets anything just happen at random and EA's strategy has clearly changed about several things:
1. EA releases more SPs than ever before.
2. EA doesn't make mobile versions of TS4 like EA did with several TS3 games (TS3, TS3 Ambitions and TS3 World Adventures).
3. EA doesn't make versions of Sims games for consoles anymore.
4. EA now has only one Sims game for mobile devices which is the Sims Freeplay. This game is even available for "rare" devices like BlackBerry, Kindle and Windows Phone too - but not for neither Windows PCs or Mac. Freeplay still gets a lot of new stuff even though the game is from 2011 and thus 6 years old.
5. EA doesn't make sidegames (like the Sims Medieval or the Sims Story Line) anymore.
So generally EA experiments less and just follows a fixed marketing strategy much more. This makes it unlikely that EA suddenly will release big EPs more often (more likely EA will release them even more rarely when TS5 needs more focus).
"EA has just released a GP. Therefore the next big expansion will be an EP." -> another assumption, they have never said they woudn't release two GPs one after another, why would you exclude it ? GPs have a shorter developpement than EPs (Source : http://forums.thesims.com/en_US/discussion/comment/15138394/#Comment_15138394), and GPs have been slowly sliding ahead compared to the EPs : OR was released 2,5 months before GTW, SD was released 4,5 months before GT, DO was released 6 months before CL, Vampires was released 2 months after CL (which may mean 10 months before EP5 if it comes for the holiday season). I think there's a high probability that next pack will in fact be a GP, possibly next summer.
And the Salt Lake City studio didn't make the last 4 EPs for TS3 by the way, both Seasons and Island Paradise were made by Redwood Shore.
Okay. You seem to be right. The last 6 EPs for TS3 were:
Showtime (made in Salt Lake in 2012)
Supernatural (made in Salt Lake in 2012)
Seasons (made in Redwood in 2012)
University Life (made in Salt Lake in 2013)
Island Paradise (made in Redwood in 2013)
Into the Future (made in Salt Lake in 2013)
So in those days EA released 3 EPs every year and 2/3 of them were made in Salt Lake City. But the studio in Redwood still only made one EP each year and not the usual 2 EPs because they were too focused on TS4 to do that.
One thing is sure, both "GPs development take 75% of an EP" and "GPs and EPs are always alternating" can't both be true at the same time, it's mathematical. Considering one has been told to us by a SimGuru and the other has been almost denied by a SimGuru ("There's no pattern !"), everything points to the first one being the one that will stay true, and the second one being the one that won't. But you can doubt it and think it's the opposite that makes the most sense, but don't pretend it's the only logical conclusion.
What is far less certain though, is whether GPs will overcome EPs at the GP5/EP4 mark or later. I'm assuming they are aiming for the holiday season for EPs (because retail, brick&mortar, distribution costs) so that seems like the perfect time. And last time we had a GP in January, we had a GP in the summer, so it's probably doable development-wise.
Second Quarter:
April
May
June
Third Quarter:
July
August
September
Fourth Quarter:
October
November
December
I feel it will probably be announced in the Fourth quarter's teaser and be released December. If there is a 2 months prior announcement. But I'm really curious as to what we're going to get over the second and third quarter. Super excited. (: Hopefully it's another game pack... between now (when I say now I mean.. the "second quarter", because we already know what's coming in March) and before the Fourth Quarter so we can have a bit of game play to play while waiting for Expansion pack 4.
It is all speculation, and we all do not know for sure, since they are NOT following any obvious pattern, since we had to wait for an eternity to get CL.
It will come: For sure. Just wait it out.
Your problem here seems to be that you assume that they always immediately starts developing the next GP when they finish the previous one and with a full team - and that they do the same with the EPs. But we don't know that at all. EA decides when both GPs and EPs have their deadlines and must be ready for release. But Maxis decide when they then should start developing them and with how many developers. Maxis also have to allocate developers for SP teams and for the teams who develop the updates in the same way. And now Maxis probably also has a TS5 team which will become bigger and bigger when Maxis knows more exact how TS5 should be made. ( New games are always first designed with a very small team which then graduately becomes bigger and bigger as the plans become more fixed.)
What we do know is that the developers now are members of more than one development team at the same time (because they have told us so). So some of the developers are probably members of both the EP4 development team and the GP5 development team. But GP5 is likely planned to be released after EP4. So my guess is that almost all such developers work on EP4 and not at the moment on GP5. This is probably true for especially the programmers, the producers and the artists while some of the game designers maybe already have switched to designing GP5. So the teams work at the same time. But not every developer every day because they of course have to prioritize.
It doesn't matter whether they start developping the next GP when they finish the previous one, or whether there's the full team or not, or when they have the deadlines, it's an average number, from idea to release. If they want to follow the alternating GP/EP rule, they could make the process take longer (like putting less people on it) then the average length from idea to release would go up ("GPs development take 75% of an EP" would no longer be true), but there's just no reason to assume they will when they have repeatedly told us there's no pattern.