Okay, listen up, everyone. Mafia teacher DeKay here, gon’ teach you about the importance of voting on Day 1. I’m gonna say this once and once more only cuz I’m tired of explaining it to people so if any of you who still think no elim is a good idea, I will just vote you out.
Also a disclaimer: This strategy is not always a 100% must for all setups; there will be certain setups where I would feel a no elim on D1 would benefit town, but I’d say this is only for like 3% of the time. I’ve played at least 200 games in the past 3 years after gaining much experience and knowing the disadvantages of ‘no elim’, I’ve decided that a no elim would be beneficial in literally only ONE game, maybe two if I’m forgetting. So I’m not saying that DeKay will always opt for an Elim on D1. It all depends on the setup. Okay?
Now, that is out of the way, let’s get started. Now, I see Nush thinks that we’re wasting town numbers and thinks numbers is so important and chances are important. But Nush’s way of thinking is only focusing on D1 itself and not the big picture. In mafia games, you want to get rid of as many obstacles as possible when you can before it’s too late.
I’m going to use this setup as an example. It’s a pretty basic setup that doesn’t have town killing roles or town protective roles which could skew the number of night kills. This means, this setup is super straight forward, aka, one person dies in the day, and other person dies at night, etc etc.
2 Mafia Goons
5 Townies
Let’s put it into two situations: Using No Elim on D1, and Using an Elim on D1. Just to illustrate it better, let’s assume on D1, town miselims (which is the worst case scenario) for the second situation where town decides to vote.
ELIM on D1:
NO ELIM on D1:
I’ve listed some advantages and disadvantages that I could think of but honestly, I just think getting rid of inactive or suspicious looking players on D1 is the best choice and these players will really be a pain in the butt on D2 when it’s lylo/mylo which we can’t afford.
When you’re looking at these percentages, you’d be like, “That’s not a huge difference, Mafia Teacher DeKay,” but you have to remember these percentages are also purely from chance. There are other factors that come into play. Inactive townies can totally forget to put in a vote which essentially means they’re not helping with the numbers anyway. Suspicious townies will probably be an easy elim bait on Day 2 as well.
Overall, if you really want to talk about numbers, Elim on D1 wins No Elim overall. As you can see, having one townie more on D2 doesn't even do any good cuz you will still be in Mylo stage anyways. And the chances of hitting a townie is higher on D2 when you don't elim on D1, compared to when you do elim on D1. Shocking, isn't it? So much wow. So it's pretty much useless, especially if that player is inactive or highly suspicious.
But if you’re looking at it in general in a mafia-strategy sense, Elim on D1 also wins as it just gives us more info to go by and also helps us get rid of potential elim baits on the day when it matters the most which is D2. If I have a chance to screw up and miselim on D1 and still have another chance on D2, I would choose that, over not trying at all on D1 and then screwing up on D2 too and then it’s over.
I appreciate that @DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
Racism is EVERYONE's fight #BLM #StopAsianHate
Let's make Liberty and Justice For All a reality.
I appreciate that DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
I appreciate that DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
So if you want analytics, there's your analytics.
Also to add on, if the setup has a doctor role or maybe a cop for example, there's a slightly higher chance that the doctor can protect the same person the mafia was going to kill just cuz there's one less townie by the start of N1.
Of course, you can have the argument on whether to elim on D1 or not cuz you're scared you will accidentally hit a PR, but at the end of the day, you have to remember D1 elim is not solely on chance. If the cop/doctor/other PR made themselves look suspicious and didn't bother to defend themselves, than that's on them. And yes, the rest of the townies will just have to deal with losing a PR but it's not like you will just lose the game straightaway when you lose a PR (tho, depends on the setup LOL). But in most cases, it shouldn't be an issue and you can still win without PRs.
I appreciate that DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
So if you want analytics, there's your analytics.
Also to add on, if the setup has a doctor role or maybe a cop for example, there's a slightly higher chance that the doctor can protect the same person the mafia was going to kill just cuz there's one less townie by the start of N1.
Of course, you can have the argument on whether to elim on D1 or not cuz you're scared you will accidentally hit a PR, but at the end of the day, you have to remember D1 elim is not solely on chance. If the cop/doctor/other PR made themselves look suspicious and didn't bother to defend themselves, than that's on them. And yes, the rest of the townies will just have to deal with losing a PR but it's not like you will just lose the game straightaway when you lose a PR (tho, depends on the setup LOL). But in most cases, it shouldn't be an issue and you can still win without PRs.
I can't argue that killing off an extra townie to begin with, will even up the townie-to-mafia ratio for the next lynch, making it more likely to hit a mafia, than if there were still an extra townie in the mix. And I don't doubt that in *some* circumstances, information could be gleaned in the voting process, to see who initiated, who resisted, who wanted whom voted for (in hindsight). I don't think that extra townies are a harmful thing even if they contribute nothing, because they add to numbers, though the benefit of that depends on even or odd numbers to begin with, whether it makes a difference for having an extra chance to get it right...right?
We didn't learn one useful thing from killing off Bella though. Did we?
Don't worry, if everyone else wants to elim day 1, I won't try too hard to dissuade people. I trust you're a good player. But I don't see it, still, that it's always better to kill someone blind on day one, because the argument that it gives mafia one extra free shot fails, when you add in that you're most likely of any time in the game, to give mafia an 2-for-1 special that first day. But maybe in most cases something is learned?
I'd love to see a meta-analysis of large numbers of games played, as to what percentage ended in a town win with Day 1 elim, vs. Day 1 no elim. Someone somewhere ought to either have that info, or if they don't, they ought to go after it. Goodness knows mafia's been the focus of other studies. I did do due diligence and research it in my spare time, only to find there's a considerable debate over it.
Racism is EVERYONE's fight #BLM #StopAsianHate
Let's make Liberty and Justice For All a reality.
I appreciate that DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
So if you want analytics, there's your analytics.
Also to add on, if the setup has a doctor role or maybe a cop for example, there's a slightly higher chance that the doctor can protect the same person the mafia was going to kill just cuz there's one less townie by the start of N1.
Of course, you can have the argument on whether to elim on D1 or not cuz you're scared you will accidentally hit a PR, but at the end of the day, you have to remember D1 elim is not solely on chance. If the cop/doctor/other PR made themselves look suspicious and didn't bother to defend themselves, than that's on them. And yes, the rest of the townies will just have to deal with losing a PR but it's not like you will just lose the game straightaway when you lose a PR (tho, depends on the setup LOL). But in most cases, it shouldn't be an issue and you can still win without PRs.
I can't argue that killing off an extra townie to begin with, will even up the townie-to-mafia ratio for the next lynch, making it more likely to hit a mafia, than if there were still an extra townie in the mix. And I don't doubt that in *some* circumstances, information could be gleaned in the voting process, to see who initiated, who resisted, who wanted whom voted for (in hindsight). I don't think that extra townies are a harmful thing even if they contribute nothing, because they add to numbers, though the benefit of that depends on even or odd numbers to begin with, whether it makes a difference for having an extra chance to get it right...right?
We didn't learn one useful thing from killing off Bella though. Did we?
Don't worry, if everyone else wants to elim day 1, I won't try too hard to dissuade people. I trust you're a good player. But I don't see it, still, that it's always better to kill someone blind on day one, because the argument that it gives mafia one extra free shot fails, when you add in that you're most likely of any time in the game, to give mafia an 2-for-1 special that first day. But maybe in most cases something is learned?
I'd love to see a meta-analysis of large numbers of games played, as to what percentage ended in a town win with Day 1 elim, vs. Day 1 no elim. Someone somewhere ought to either have that info, or if they don't, they ought to go after it. Goodness knows mafia's been the focus of other studies. I did do due diligence and research it in my spare time, only to find there's a considerable debate over it.
I don't know if I'm not understanding you or you're not understanding how mafia game works.
The extra townie who doesn't contribute anything matters as it doesn't add to the numbers. Mafia doesn't win once they eliminate EVERY SINGLE townie. That's not how it works. They win when they either take up half of the population or half plus 1 of the population.
Regarding the odd and even number thing. That actually depends. I can talk a lot more on game setups but usually the usual "one day elim, one night kill" pattern is used for odd numbered games so that we would end up in lylo situations for the most part. Even numbered games usually have different situations in the setups that would also mostly lead to a lylo situation too. There's a few even numbered games where it's nightless, for example, or there's a mafia bomber where they can take out themselves and another townie with them in the day.
I can learn a lot from the Bella kill. She's a townie, which could mean a mafia would want to get rid of her, so at least of the mafia is the one who killed her. Maybe both mafia wouldn't want to vote for Bella so they will look townish and frame the ones who did. The only ones who didn't vote her were you and Icey. If you already know who you are, then there's a possibility that Icey is mafia. Frenchy wanted to save Bella which I don't think a mafia would bother to do so. Etc etc. Of course this is not guaranteed, but the thing about mafia game is that nothing is guaranteed. Mafia isn't a gambling game.
There's no point in looking for a meta analysis of such findings. I think the wins all depend on how good or bad the players are. So such findings won't really mean much.
I appreciate that DeKay took the time to explain it that way, and I'm trying. Even did some digging, on the debates over the merits vs. pitfalls of D1 voting. A major schism seems to be between two schools of thought: those who have faith in the ability of players to glean anything useful without hard data (that "reads" are at all reliable) and those who take a much more skeptical view of that. I tend to be a skeptic when it comes to how easily people are led, how easily we all justify a point of view especially where suspicion is concerned (McCarthyism if anyone needs an example) for being any kind of reliable indicator of who is and isn't mafia D1.
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
So if you want analytics, there's your analytics.
Also to add on, if the setup has a doctor role or maybe a cop for example, there's a slightly higher chance that the doctor can protect the same person the mafia was going to kill just cuz there's one less townie by the start of N1.
Of course, you can have the argument on whether to elim on D1 or not cuz you're scared you will accidentally hit a PR, but at the end of the day, you have to remember D1 elim is not solely on chance. If the cop/doctor/other PR made themselves look suspicious and didn't bother to defend themselves, than that's on them. And yes, the rest of the townies will just have to deal with losing a PR but it's not like you will just lose the game straightaway when you lose a PR (tho, depends on the setup LOL). But in most cases, it shouldn't be an issue and you can still win without PRs.
I can't argue that killing off an extra townie to begin with, will even up the townie-to-mafia ratio for the next lynch, making it more likely to hit a mafia, than if there were still an extra townie in the mix. And I don't doubt that in *some* circumstances, information could be gleaned in the voting process, to see who initiated, who resisted, who wanted whom voted for (in hindsight). I don't think that extra townies are a harmful thing even if they contribute nothing, because they add to numbers, though the benefit of that depends on even or odd numbers to begin with, whether it makes a difference for having an extra chance to get it right...right?
We didn't learn one useful thing from killing off Bella though. Did we?
Don't worry, if everyone else wants to elim day 1, I won't try too hard to dissuade people. I trust you're a good player. But I don't see it, still, that it's always better to kill someone blind on day one, because the argument that it gives mafia one extra free shot fails, when you add in that you're most likely of any time in the game, to give mafia an 2-for-1 special that first day. But maybe in most cases something is learned?
I'd love to see a meta-analysis of large numbers of games played, as to what percentage ended in a town win with Day 1 elim, vs. Day 1 no elim. Someone somewhere ought to either have that info, or if they don't, they ought to go after it. Goodness knows mafia's been the focus of other studies. I did do due diligence and research it in my spare time, only to find there's a considerable debate over it.
I don't know if I'm not understanding you or you're not understanding how mafia game works.
The extra townie who doesn't contribute anything matters as it doesn't add to the numbers. Mafia doesn't win once they eliminate EVERY SINGLE townie. That's not how it works. They win when they either take up half of the population or half plus 1 of the population.
Regarding the odd and even number thing. That actually depends. I can talk a lot more on game setups but usually the usual "one day elim, one night kill" pattern is used for odd numbered games so that we would end up in lylo situations for the most part. Even numbered games usually have different situations in the setups that would also mostly lead to a lylo situation too. There's a few even numbered games where it's nightless, for example, or there's a mafia bomber where they can take out themselves and another townie with them in the day.
I can learn a lot from the Bella kill. She's a townie, which could mean a mafia would want to get rid of her, so at least of the mafia is the one who killed her. Maybe both mafia wouldn't want to vote for Bella so they will look townish and frame the ones who did. The only ones who didn't vote her were you and Icey. If you already know who you are, then there's a possibility that Icey is mafia. Frenchy wanted to save Bella which I don't think a mafia would bother to do so. Etc etc. Of course this is not guaranteed, but the thing about mafia game is that nothing is guaranteed. Mafia isn't a gambling game.
There's no point in looking for a meta analysis of such findings. I think the wins all depend on how good or bad the players are. So such findings won't really mean much.
There are so many variables that determine the outcome of a mafia game, which is 1 of several things that I really like about the game. DeKay mentioned skill as being a factor (or lack therof). I can certainly vouch for that. In my first game, it was basically a bunch of first timers with only DeKay and Frenchy as veteran players. DeKay was mafia and went through us newbies like a hot knife through butter. I'd like to think I learned a lot though and continue to learn as each setup is usually different.
Comments
@Broncos4life Explain.
Race Against the Clock: Can your elder sim turn back the clock before their time runs out?
Anyway, correct information has been sent out and those affected can share the new results
Link: here!
I promise I did
Vote: Ice
Vote: Iceman
Race Against the Clock: Can your elder sim turn back the clock before their time runs out?
Everyone votes Icey
4- Icey (Everyone)
Link: here!
Link: here!
DeKay and I already knew we lost by day 2 so we've just been vibing in the Mafia chat
Race Against the Clock: Can your elder sim turn back the clock before their time runs out?
Here are the roles:
Icey- Mafia Goon
DeKay- Mafia Roleblocker
Mouse- Tracker
Frenchy- Watcher
Bella- VT
Luv- VT
Song- VT
Nush- VT
Link: here!
Oh well at least that is fun.
Oh, we already knew you and Mouse were the PRs by the time day 2 ended
Race Against the Clock: Can your elder sim turn back the clock before their time runs out?
Yea it wasn’t hard to figure that out. Good job!
Also a disclaimer: This strategy is not always a 100% must for all setups; there will be certain setups where I would feel a no elim on D1 would benefit town, but I’d say this is only for like 3% of the time. I’ve played at least 200 games in the past 3 years after gaining much experience and knowing the disadvantages of ‘no elim’, I’ve decided that a no elim would be beneficial in literally only ONE game, maybe two if I’m forgetting. So I’m not saying that DeKay will always opt for an Elim on D1. It all depends on the setup. Okay?
Now, that is out of the way, let’s get started. Now, I see Nush thinks that we’re wasting town numbers and thinks numbers is so important and chances are important. But Nush’s way of thinking is only focusing on D1 itself and not the big picture. In mafia games, you want to get rid of as many obstacles as possible when you can before it’s too late.
I’m going to use this setup as an example. It’s a pretty basic setup that doesn’t have town killing roles or town protective roles which could skew the number of night kills. This means, this setup is super straight forward, aka, one person dies in the day, and other person dies at night, etc etc.
2 Mafia Goons
5 Townies
Let’s put it into two situations: Using No Elim on D1, and Using an Elim on D1. Just to illustrate it better, let’s assume on D1, town miselims (which is the worst case scenario) for the second situation where town decides to vote.
ELIM on D1:
NO ELIM on D1:
I’ve listed some advantages and disadvantages that I could think of but honestly, I just think getting rid of inactive or suspicious looking players on D1 is the best choice and these players will really be a pain in the butt on D2 when it’s lylo/mylo which we can’t afford.
When you’re looking at these percentages, you’d be like, “That’s not a huge difference, Mafia Teacher DeKay,” but you have to remember these percentages are also purely from chance. There are other factors that come into play. Inactive townies can totally forget to put in a vote which essentially means they’re not helping with the numbers anyway. Suspicious townies will probably be an easy elim bait on Day 2 as well.
Overall, if you really want to talk about numbers, Elim on D1 wins No Elim overall. As you can see, having one townie more on D2 doesn't even do any good cuz you will still be in Mylo stage anyways. And the chances of hitting a townie is higher on D2 when you don't elim on D1, compared to when you do elim on D1. Shocking, isn't it? So much wow. So it's pretty much useless, especially if that player is inactive or highly suspicious.
But if you’re looking at it in general in a mafia-strategy sense, Elim on D1 also wins as it just gives us more info to go by and also helps us get rid of potential elim baits on the day when it matters the most which is D2. If I have a chance to screw up and miselim on D1 and still have another chance on D2, I would choose that, over not trying at all on D1 and then screwing up on D2 too and then it’s over.
Definitely agree with Mafia Teacher DeKay’s post
The arguments in favor of D1 elim, seem to be based on the idea that town can, and generally does, ferret out useful info from D1 interactions. I'd have to see analytics to believe it's actually true and not a product of belief and selection bias.
And without a belief in the fundamental reliability of D1 "reads", the whole argument falls apart. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wanna be convinced, but I won't say I'm convinced if I'm not.
ETA: I also believe that most people make decisions emotionally rather than rationally. If all players could be assumed to behave strictly logically in a group-dynamics situation it would change the picture dramatically. But as experience has taught me, sitting at a green light while one by one, each driver waits til the next car starts moving to take their foot off the brake, instead of watching the light, and all taking their foot off the brake at the same approximate time (saving a lot of time in aggregate)...people in aggregate don't behave rationally.
Let's make Liberty and Justice For All a reality.
I respect that you took time to read and research on more but the truth is, in mafia, there is infinite possibilities. That's why it's almost impossible to find a statistic cuz this game isn't math, it isn't science. It's unpredictable. Anything can happen. I don't know how else to convince you but I already gave you the percentages of the chance of hitting a town or mafia purely via chance and literally no "clues/emotions/whatever else involved other than pure chance".
No Elim on D1 and on mylo on D2: 4 town vs 2 mafia (higher chance of hitting town, lower chance of hitting mafia).
Elim on D1 and lylo on D2: 3 town vs 2 mafia (lower chance of hitting town compared to above, better chance of hitting mafia compared to above).
So if you want analytics, there's your analytics.
Also to add on, if the setup has a doctor role or maybe a cop for example, there's a slightly higher chance that the doctor can protect the same person the mafia was going to kill just cuz there's one less townie by the start of N1.
Of course, you can have the argument on whether to elim on D1 or not cuz you're scared you will accidentally hit a PR, but at the end of the day, you have to remember D1 elim is not solely on chance. If the cop/doctor/other PR made themselves look suspicious and didn't bother to defend themselves, than that's on them. And yes, the rest of the townies will just have to deal with losing a PR but it's not like you will just lose the game straightaway when you lose a PR (tho, depends on the setup LOL). But in most cases, it shouldn't be an issue and you can still win without PRs.
So ya, PRs are important, but not town's only hope to win.
Then you'll enjoy the next game
Link: here!
I can't argue that killing off an extra townie to begin with, will even up the townie-to-mafia ratio for the next lynch, making it more likely to hit a mafia, than if there were still an extra townie in the mix. And I don't doubt that in *some* circumstances, information could be gleaned in the voting process, to see who initiated, who resisted, who wanted whom voted for (in hindsight). I don't think that extra townies are a harmful thing even if they contribute nothing, because they add to numbers, though the benefit of that depends on even or odd numbers to begin with, whether it makes a difference for having an extra chance to get it right...right?
We didn't learn one useful thing from killing off Bella though. Did we?
Don't worry, if everyone else wants to elim day 1, I won't try too hard to dissuade people. I trust you're a good player. But I don't see it, still, that it's always better to kill someone blind on day one, because the argument that it gives mafia one extra free shot fails, when you add in that you're most likely of any time in the game, to give mafia an 2-for-1 special that first day. But maybe in most cases something is learned?
I'd love to see a meta-analysis of large numbers of games played, as to what percentage ended in a town win with Day 1 elim, vs. Day 1 no elim. Someone somewhere ought to either have that info, or if they don't, they ought to go after it. Goodness knows mafia's been the focus of other studies. I did do due diligence and research it in my spare time, only to find there's a considerable debate over it.
Let's make Liberty and Justice For All a reality.
I don't know if I'm not understanding you or you're not understanding how mafia game works.
The extra townie who doesn't contribute anything matters as it doesn't add to the numbers. Mafia doesn't win once they eliminate EVERY SINGLE townie. That's not how it works. They win when they either take up half of the population or half plus 1 of the population.
Regarding the odd and even number thing. That actually depends. I can talk a lot more on game setups but usually the usual "one day elim, one night kill" pattern is used for odd numbered games so that we would end up in lylo situations for the most part. Even numbered games usually have different situations in the setups that would also mostly lead to a lylo situation too. There's a few even numbered games where it's nightless, for example, or there's a mafia bomber where they can take out themselves and another townie with them in the day.
I can learn a lot from the Bella kill. She's a townie, which could mean a mafia would want to get rid of her, so at least of the mafia is the one who killed her. Maybe both mafia wouldn't want to vote for Bella so they will look townish and frame the ones who did. The only ones who didn't vote her were you and Icey. If you already know who you are, then there's a possibility that Icey is mafia. Frenchy wanted to save Bella which I don't think a mafia would bother to do so. Etc etc. Of course this is not guaranteed, but the thing about mafia game is that nothing is guaranteed. Mafia isn't a gambling game.
There's no point in looking for a meta analysis of such findings. I think the wins all depend on how good or bad the players are. So such findings won't really mean much.
There are so many variables that determine the outcome of a mafia game, which is 1 of several things that I really like about the game. DeKay mentioned skill as being a factor (or lack therof). I can certainly vouch for that. In my first game, it was basically a bunch of first timers with only DeKay and Frenchy as veteran players. DeKay was mafia and went through us newbies like a hot knife through butter.